Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-27 36.568190 41.437434 47.201376 54.671672 64.327456 76.745423 94.591515
2025-05-04 30.180207 36.180541 44.044887 55.616070 73.265216 101.492014 157.008634
2025-05-11 26.001982 32.368741 41.325641 55.828864 81.255444 131.602361 278.627191
2025-05-18 22.893525 29.242166 38.628860 54.953861 87.015072 164.641438 542.693829
2025-05-25 20.858116 27.224061 37.046394 55.264591 95.225147 216.636340 1761.435064
2025-06-01 19.151621 25.402760 35.365415 54.809415 101.657137 280.026454 227391.520226
2025-06-08 17.741313 23.833615 33.798384 54.084596 107.174479 362.392885 NaN
2025-06-15 16.580008 22.512422 32.431545 53.381615 112.548744 479.565997 NaN
2025-06-22 15.654117 21.466605 31.387717 53.096567 119.330591 682.832933 NaN
2025-06-29 14.731340 20.335945 30.036863 51.790124 121.982779 914.755606 NaN
2025-07-06 14.452405 20.246399 30.593565 55.141147 146.056291 3284.622620 NaN
2025-07-13 13.772688 19.411099 29.612049 54.402865 152.210450 10524.470389 NaN
2025-07-20 13.258936 18.835081 29.097328 54.857092 166.005908 NaN NaN
2025-07-27 12.818477 18.353604 28.717499 55.615609 183.713958 NaN NaN
2025-08-03 12.365395 17.815355 28.160557 55.747905 198.852636 NaN NaN
2025-08-10 11.871649 17.170545 27.315901 54.842115 206.054788 NaN NaN
2025-08-17 11.511309 16.744099 26.890303 55.137869 224.935341 NaN NaN
2025-08-24 11.126295 16.248157 26.267583 54.678648 237.428661 NaN NaN
2025-08-31 10.753202 15.752999 25.603379 53.954311 247.110361 NaN NaN
2025-09-07 10.409332 15.293843 24.980737 53.253148 256.989319 NaN NaN
2025-09-14 10.116680 14.915119 24.505821 52.968829 272.985057 NaN NaN
2025-09-21 9.780189 14.438045 23.775682 51.667385 273.417320 NaN NaN
2025-09-28 9.740807 14.518724 24.309826 55.004904 362.239647 NaN NaN